FB-4 Worldwide. FB-4 Worldwide should be watched closely. Following aggressive movement of the final action date in April, this category is not expected to advance. The April movement seems to have stimulated applicants to take action, and increased demand may require a temporary retrogression in this category later this fiscal year. Should retrogression occur, the category would recover completely in October, the first month of the new fiscal year. The final action dates for all other family-based categories are expected remain stable.
EB-1 and EB-2 Worldwide. As noted in the May 2017 Visa Bulletin, EB-1 and EB-2 Worldwide demand at USCIS has increased dramatically over the past six weeks, signaling the possibility of a future correction to the final action date. DOS explained that number usage in both of these categories for January and February was about 1,000 higher than earlier months and DOS expects that it will be at least that high, if not higher, in April. While this is positive in the sense that USCIS is clearing out and approving cases, it may limit the ability for the agencies to take final action on pending cases toward the end of the summer if a correction is required.
Many factors influence demand in a given month, only some of which are within USCIS control. While USCIS can reallocate its resources across different product lines, changes in the number and types of petitions filed may require an unanticipated shift in resources. It is unclear what motivated this increase in adjudications (e.g., receipt of a glut of FBI clearances, anticipated resource changes, or a combination of factors).
EB-1 India and China. DOS has been predicting the imposition of a final action cut-off date for EB-1 China and India for several months and echoes that warning in the May Visa Bulletin. DOS states that the only reason a final action cut-off date has not already been imposed is that thus far, India and China have been able to benefit from “otherwise unused numbers” not currently required for other countries. The use of “otherwise unused numbers” by these two countries will soon end in order to ensure that other countries who have not yet reached their EB-1 per country limit can remain “current.” The worldwide demand and heavy use of EB-4 and EB-5 numbers, which in earlier years had remained unused and had “fallen up” to EB-1, has resulted in the restriction of EB-1 number use strictly to those numbers available to that category on an annual basis.
DOS predicts that a final action cut-off date will be imposed for EB-1 China and India no later than July. When that occurs, both countries will have the same final action date. While these categories will not technically become “unavailable,” the date that is imposed will effectively shut off the use of additional numbers.
EB-2 India. March demand for EB-2 India doubled from February. Based on this spike in demand, DOS can no longer say with confidence that this category will recover to last year’s level. However, there may still be some room for the date to advance further, and based on current demand patterns, the absolute best case scenario would be for the final action date to reach December 2008. The wildcard factor is whether EB-3 upgrades will subside or continue at the same or faster pace. DOS lacks visibility into EB-3 upgrade demand until a visa number is requested, and therefore cannot plan final action date movements with much precision.
The China EB-3 Downgrade Phenomenon. The gap between EB-2 China and EB-3 China continues to widen in May, with EB-3 China advancing six months to October 1, 2014 and EB-2 China advancing less than one month to February 8, 2013. Consistent with this trend, the public should not expect any significant advancement in the final action date for EB-2 China this fiscal year. By contrast, we may continue to see a healthy advancement of EB-3 China until or unless the expected EB-3 downgrade phenomenon